Yes the body weight was in my dataset. Quoting from the K/9 projections piece (based on a piecewise linear model):
The model suggests that height doesn’t matter, except that it hurts lefty relievers. Higher body weight is good for relievers, but bad for lefty starters. Higher age is bad for lefty starters, but good for lefty relievers. I doubt if any of these values are significant.
Our friend Carsten Charles is on the bad side of that formula. Height and weight is slightly bad for lefties, all else being equal. But the values are nowhere near significant nor the coefficients likely more than negligible. I was joking about these features in the line above… or at least I hope I wasn’t taking tiny coefficients seriously over a small sample 🤔
The weights (in strikeouts per nine innings) are
- 0.0002 * HEIGHT_OVER_6ft
+ 0.0063 * WEIGHT
Compare this to the AGE factor, which is also small, and very much in the noise, once we account for league, fastball velocity, left-handedness, and other factors that matter.
- 0.0409 * AGE
Logically, being tall or heavy would lead to more injuries, although short pitchers who throw really hard also tend to get shoulder problems because of the big league torque created by a rapid angular rotation through that most flexible of joints.
I understand why CC’s doctors recommended that he cut down on the Cap’n Crunch, or at least move to a smaller serving size. I’m sure it was great for his long term healthy. There are no benefits to being 300+ lbs after baseball.
But as you can see in Sabathia’s Pitch Type stats on Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity dropped down significantly in 2013 and his performance declined in lockstep with that v-drop.
Sabathia’s strikeout rate (6.5 K/9 early in his career, peaking at 8.9 K/9 in 2008) was actually never that high given his amazing stuff (94mph average fastball, and being left handed). He was a workhorse, leading the league in innings pitched several years in a row, and he kept the home run rate really low early in his career — despite not every being a “ground ball” type pitcher.
Once his average fastball velocity dropped down a bit (94mph to 92mph), CC for the past few years has been a more like a solid #2/#3 starter. Which is pretty good, and I’m sure his family is happy that CC leaves a little Cap’n Crunch over for them.
